消防部队在核事故应急救援中的个人防护

为避免和减少消防部队在核事故应急救援中受到辐射伤害,着重从辐射效应、人体损伤特点、剂量控制、防护措施以及医学干预等方面进行探讨,以指导消防官兵做好辐射伤害的个人防护。     

加强和改进应急救援工作若干问题思考

当前消防部队面临的应急救援形势越来越严峻,担负的任务越来越繁重,作战行动也越来越艰苦,这给公安消防部队提出了新的挑战,也使公安消防部队应急救援工作具有新的发展机遇。论述了当前公安消防部队应急救援工作存在的问题,提出了加强和改进应急救援工作的建议。     

处置突发事件中实施运用《人民武装警察法》应把握的原则

《人民武装警察法》为武警部队处置突发事件明确了充分的法律依据,树立了系统的法律规范,提供了可靠的法律保障。同时也对武警部队依法处置突发事件提出了更高的要求,即必须做到：指挥法定,任务法定,职责法定,行为法定,保障法定,责任法定。武警部队在处置突发事件中对《人民武装警察法》的实施运用,应当把握好以下原则：统一领导,集中指挥;严格审批,依法用警;把握权限,严格执法;遵纪守法,规范言行;多方协调,全面保障;接受监督,承担责任。     

导弹突防后弹道机动调整策略强化学习

针对弹道导弹中段突防后飞行弹道与标准弹道产生较大偏离的弹道机动调整问题,建立了机动调整时机策略最优化模型。设计了机动调整逆序Q学习算法,采用Tile coding逼近器编码状态特征空间,并对其进行线性逼近。构建了Q学习算法与蒙特卡罗方法相结合的逆序更新策略机制,以对导弹机动调整最优时机进行训练。仿真测试分析结果表明,在给定场景参数下,通过10 000代强化学习算法训练得到的策略能够可靠地使用最少机动次数控制导弹突防后飞行弹道的调整决策,验证了方法的有效性。     

基于逆向强化学习的舰载机甲板调度优化方案生成方法

针对计算机辅助指挥调度舰载机甲板作业的决策过程无法脱离人参与这一特点,引入基于逆向学习的强化学习方法,将指挥员或专家的演示作为学习对象,通过分析舰载机的甲板活动,建立舰载机甲板调度的马尔可夫决策模型(MDP)框架;经线性近似,采用逆向学习方法计算得到回报函数,从而能够通过强化学习方法得到智能优化策略,生成舰载机甲板调度方案。经仿真实验验证,本文所提方法能够较好地学习专家演示,结果符合调度方案优化需求,为形成辅助决策提供了基础。     

交通隧道抢险救援需要把握和解决的几个问题

基于多年工作经验,分析总结了我国交通隧道抢险救援的主要特点,明确了交通隧道抢险救援中需要把握和解决的主要问题,并提出了具体的战术战法,为我国交通隧道抢险救援工作提供参考。     

A model of supply-chain decisions for resource sharing with an application to ventilator allocation to combat COVID-19

We present a stochastic optimization model for allocating and sharing a critical resource in the case of a pandemic. The demand for different entities peaks at different times, and an initial inventory for a central agency are to be allocated. The entities (states) may share the critical resource with a different state under a risk-averse condition. The model is applied to study the allocation of ventilator inventory in the COVID-19 pandemic by FEMA to different U.S. states. Findings suggest that if less than 60% of the ventilator inventory is available for non-COVID-19 patients, FEMA's stockpile of 20 000 ventilators (as of March 23, 2020) would be nearly adequate to meet the projected needs in slightly above average demand scenarios. However, when more than 75% of the available ventilator inventory must be reserved for non-COVID-19 patients, various degrees of shortfall are expected. In a severe case, where the demand is concentrated in the top-most quartile of the forecast confidence interval and states are not willing to share their stockpile of ventilators, the total shortfall over the planning horizon (until May 31, 2020) is about 232 000 ventilator days, with a peak shortfall of 17 200 ventilators on April 19, 2020. Results are also reported for a worst-case where the demand is at the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval. An important finding of this study is that a central agency (FEMA) can act as a coordinator for sharing critical resources that are in short supply over time to add efficiency in the system. Moreover, through properly managing risk-aversion of different entities (states) additional efficiency can be gained. An additional implication is that ramping up production early in the planning cycle allows to reduce shortfall significantly. An optimal timing of this production ramp-up consideration can be based on a cost-benefit analysis.     

发达国家突发公共事件应急管理对我国的启示

从应急管理理念、应急力量整合、应急法律制度和应对计划、社会参与、应急资源保障、人才培养体系、应急组织机构、联合应急方式等八个方面归纳总结了发达国家应急管理的共同特点,从突发公共事件应急组织体系、应急管理模式、整合信息资源、联合应急方式、应急保障、纲领性的公共突发事件应急管理基本法和应急计划等六个方面分析了我国突发公共事件应急管理方面存在的不足,并提出了改进的措施。     

试论应急管理体系的财政支撑

从2003年的“非典”开始，我国逐步建立起了一套应急管理体系，在南方冰雪灾害、汶川地震以及今年的玉树地震和南方水灾等抗震救灾工作中发挥作用并不断完善。财政支撑在应急管理体系中有着至关重要的作用。对目前我国应急财政管理现状进行分析，结合对外国应急管理体系先进做法的借鉴，提出了对建立健全应急财政支撑体系的政策建议。     

Disaster management in case of CBRNe events: an innovative methodology to improve the safety knowledge of advisors and first responders

Nowadays, Chemical-Biological-Radiological-Nuclear-explosive (CBRNe) risks are one of the world's main safety concerns. The radiological disasters of Fukushima and Chernobyl, the chemical events of Seveso or the release of Sarin in the Tokyo Subway, the biological emergencies such as the H1N1 flu or the recent Ebola outbreak, and recent news about the availability of non-conventional weapons acquired by fundamentalist organisations represent evidence of potential future threats. CBRNe risks are a real and global threat. The University of Rome, Tor Vergata, in collaboration with the most important Italian and international bodies working in the field of CBRNe safety and security, and supported by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, organises International Masters Courses on the Protection against CBRNe events. Within this framework, a Table-Top Exercise was planned, in collaboration with the Italian Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Defence. The scenario, the logistic organisation, on-going adjustments during the exercise and the outcomes are presented here and analysed.